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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Canada’s Railways and Union in Critical Talks as Midnight Deadline Looms

 

Canada’s two major freight railroads, Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), are currently embroiled in intense labor negotiations. The stakes are high: if an agreement isn’t reached by midnight, thousands of workers could face a lockout. This would halt the movement of approximately $1 billion worth of goods that traverse these companies’ tracks daily.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has urged both sides to continue their efforts at the negotiation table. He emphasized that millions of Canadians, workers, farmers, and businesses across the country are counting on a resolution. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada, Canadian Federation of Independent Business, and the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters have also called on the federal government to take immediate action to keep trains running and goods flowing.

The situation remains tense, and the outcome will have significant implications for the Canadian economy. Let’s hope that a last-minute agreement can be reached to avert a major rail stoppage. 

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