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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Freight Train Standstill: Canadians Await Details on Railway Reopening

 

Businesses and industry leaders across Canada are holding their breath as they await updates on when freight trains will resume operations. The federal government has stepped in after a work stoppage brought all shipments to a halt for an entire day.

Months of tense negotiations between Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CPKC) and Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) reached a breaking point when the two sides failed to reach a deal by 12:01 a.m. eastern time on Thursday. In response, both companies locked out workers.

Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon swiftly intervened, asking the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to impose binding arbitration on the parties. He also requested that the railways resume operations under the terms of the old collective agreement until new deals are in place.

CN promptly lifted its lockout in anticipation of a formal order from the board, while CPKC prepared to restart operations. However, the Teamsters union, representing rail workers, refused to discuss resuming service and instead challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon’s direction.

The impact of this work stoppage extends beyond supply chains. Tens of thousands of commuters in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver rely on lines running on CPKC-owned tracks. The urgency to restore rail services is palpable, and all eyes are on the CIRB’s decision.


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