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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Freight Train Standstill: Canadians Await Details on Railway Reopening

 

Businesses and industry leaders across Canada are holding their breath as they await updates on when freight trains will resume operations. The federal government has stepped in after a work stoppage brought all shipments to a halt for an entire day.

Months of tense negotiations between Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CPKC) and Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) reached a breaking point when the two sides failed to reach a deal by 12:01 a.m. eastern time on Thursday. In response, both companies locked out workers.

Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon swiftly intervened, asking the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to impose binding arbitration on the parties. He also requested that the railways resume operations under the terms of the old collective agreement until new deals are in place.

CN promptly lifted its lockout in anticipation of a formal order from the board, while CPKC prepared to restart operations. However, the Teamsters union, representing rail workers, refused to discuss resuming service and instead challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon’s direction.

The impact of this work stoppage extends beyond supply chains. Tens of thousands of commuters in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver rely on lines running on CPKC-owned tracks. The urgency to restore rail services is palpable, and all eyes are on the CIRB’s decision.


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