Published July 5, 2026 Your morning rundown on the Canadian economy, markets, and money moves — TSX hits a record close, CUSMA talks roll past the deadline, the first CGEB payment lands, and what to expect ahead of the Bank of Canada's July 15 decision. 1. TSX closes at a record high on gold-miner strength The S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.9% to close at a record 35,275 on Friday, July 3, powered by gold mining stocks. Gold prices firmed after U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June came in at roughly half the expected pace, fuelling bets that the Federal Reserve could turn more dovish. Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Barrick all posted solid gains, while financials like Scotiabank and BMO also moved higher on easing oil-supply concerns. Why it matters: if you hold Canadian equity index funds in your TFSA or RRSP, resource and financial-sector strength has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting this year — worth knowing if your portfolio feels more concentrated than you'd...
Market Turmoil: Stocks and Bond Yields Plunge Amid U.S. Recession Fears
In a dramatic turn of events, U.S. stocks and bond yields plummeted sharply on Friday as recession fears intensified following a disappointing jobs report. The latest data revealed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, sparking concerns about the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
The labor market, which had shown resilience despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, now appears to be weakening. This shift has led investors to reassess their expectations for future interest rate cuts. Traders are now betting on significant rate reductions for the remainder of the year, nearly doubling their previous estimates.
Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, saw a sharp decline. The two-year yields hit their lowest levels since March last year, while the benchmark 10-year yields reached their lowest since December. The yield curve, which has been inverted for over two years, is now closer to turning positive, a historical indicator of an impending recession.
The bond market’s reaction underscores the growing anxiety among investors about the potential for a recession. The Sahm rule, an early indicator of recession, was triggered as the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rose by 0.53 percentage points. This rule has been a reliable predictor of economic downturns, adding to the mounting concerns.
As the market grapples with these developments, the Federal Reserve faces increasing pressure to adjust its policies to prevent a deeper economic contraction. The coming weeks will be crucial as investors and policymakers navigate this uncertain economic landscape.
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