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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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S&P 500 Plummets Amid Weak Jobs Report

 


The S&P 500 experienced its worst jobs day since October 2022, as a weak jobs report fueled concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. The index fell by 1.8%, while the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 also saw significant declines, dropping 2.4% and 3.5% respectively.

The disappointing jobs data has intensified fears that the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at a two-decade high could lead to a more pronounced economic slowdown. This sentiment was echoed by Wall Street giants like Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., who are now calling for more aggressive Fed action.

The selloff was further exacerbated by a plunge in key technology companies, with Intel Corp. experiencing a 26% drop due to a grim growth forecast. The volatility index, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” hit its highest level since March 2023.

As traders project that the Fed will cut rates by more than a full percentage point in 2024, the market’s focus has shifted from “when and how much will the Fed ease” to concerns about a potential economic downturn. This shift in sentiment has led to increased volatility and a flight from riskier assets.

The latest jobs figures suggest that the Fed’s policies may be cooling the labor market too much, raising questions about whether the central bank has been too slow to act. As the market grapples with these uncertainties, investors are taking money off the table and booking profits, leading to continued near-term volatility.


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