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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...

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S&P 500 Plummets Amid Weak Jobs Report

 


The S&P 500 experienced its worst jobs day since October 2022, as a weak jobs report fueled concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. The index fell by 1.8%, while the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 also saw significant declines, dropping 2.4% and 3.5% respectively.

The disappointing jobs data has intensified fears that the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at a two-decade high could lead to a more pronounced economic slowdown. This sentiment was echoed by Wall Street giants like Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., who are now calling for more aggressive Fed action.

The selloff was further exacerbated by a plunge in key technology companies, with Intel Corp. experiencing a 26% drop due to a grim growth forecast. The volatility index, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” hit its highest level since March 2023.

As traders project that the Fed will cut rates by more than a full percentage point in 2024, the market’s focus has shifted from “when and how much will the Fed ease” to concerns about a potential economic downturn. This shift in sentiment has led to increased volatility and a flight from riskier assets.

The latest jobs figures suggest that the Fed’s policies may be cooling the labor market too much, raising questions about whether the central bank has been too slow to act. As the market grapples with these uncertainties, investors are taking money off the table and booking profits, leading to continued near-term volatility.


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