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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Wall Street’s Bears Warn of Risks to Stocks Amid Slowing Economy


Wall Street’s stock sell-off is intensifying as concerns grow over the health of the US economy Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 800 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell nearly 5%, and S&P 500 futures declined almost 3%. The CBOE Volatility Index soared to its highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The global stock market is experiencing a rapid sell-off following a lackluster US jobs report, raising concerns about the economy and the Federal Reserve’s timing on interest rate cuts. Major companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla saw significant declines, and Bitcoin dropped over 15%.

The sell-off has spread globally, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 experiencing its biggest-ever daily loss. Oil prices also fell, with WTI crude futures nearing $72 a barrel. This week, US unemployment claims will be closely watched for further economic insights.



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