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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Bank of Canada Poised for Significant Rate Cut Amid Economic Slowdown

 

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to reduce its key policy rate by 50 basis points next week, marking its fourth consecutive rate cut and the first substantial reduction outside of the pandemic era in over 15 years. This anticipated move aims to stimulate economic growth as the country grapples with falling prices and sluggish consumer and business spending.

The central bank’s decision, set to be announced on October 23, will likely bring the benchmark rate down to 3.75% from the current 4.25%. This follows a series of rate cuts that began in June, prompted by consistent signs of cooling inflation and weakening economic growth.

Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the Bank of Canada is increasingly concerned about the risks of a faltering economy and declining inflation. Recent data has shown that Canada’s GDP growth has been minimal, with a mere 0.2% increase in July and a likely stall in August. Additionally, headline inflation for September was recorded at 1.6%, below the central bank’s target range.

Economists and financial markets are largely in agreement about the upcoming rate cut, with a Reuters poll showing that two-thirds of economists expect a 50 basis point reduction. This move is seen as necessary to support the economy, despite some concerns about potential inflationary pressures.

The Bank of Canada’s upcoming monetary policy report will provide further insights into its economic forecasts and the rationale behind its decision. As the central bank navigates these challenging economic conditions, its actions will be closely watched by markets and policymakers alike.


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