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BoC Holds at 2.25%: What the Rate Decision (and Rising Gas Prices) Mean for Your Wallet

  Thursday, July 16, 2026 Sixth consecutive hold. A weaker 2026 growth forecast. And inflation that's running hotter because of gas prices, not the usual suspects. Here's what actually changes for you. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, exactly as markets expected. No surprise there. What's more interesting is why it held, and what it revealed about where the economy — and your bills — are headed next. This was the sixth straight hold since the Bank finished its easing cycle back in October. But buried in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report were a few numbers worth your attention. The Numbers That Matter Overnight Rate 2.25% (unchanged) Prime Rate (typical) 4.45% 2026 GDP Growth Forecast 0.7% (cut from 1.2%) 2027 / 2028 Growth Forecast 1.8% each year May CPI Inflation 3.2% Inflation Excluding Gasoline 2.2% Unemployment Rate (June) 6.5% Next Rate Decision September 2, 2026 Why Gas Prices Are Driving This Decision Here's the twist in th...
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New Mortgage Policies Expected to Drive Canadian Home Prices Higher in 2025

 

According to a recent analysis by TD Economics, new federal mortgage policies are set to boost Canadian home prices in 2025. These policies, which include raising the cap on insured mortgages and extending amortization periods for first-time homebuyers, are expected to provide a secondary tailwind to the housing market.

The new measures, effective December 15, 2024, will increase the insured mortgage cap from $1 million to $1.5 million, allowing more Canadians to qualify for mortgages with lower down payments. Additionally, first-time homebuyers and purchasers of new builds will be able to take out loans with a 30-year amortization period.

TD Economics predicts that these changes will result in home sales and average prices being two to four percentage points higher by the end of 2025 than they would have been without the new policies. However, the report also warns that the initial boost in affordability may erode over time, potentially slowing sales volume and price growth by the end of 2026.

While these policies are not expected to trigger a housing boom on their own, they will complement lower interest rates and improving economic conditions, contributing to a more robust housing market. The changes come amid an ongoing affordability crisis driven by population growth, sluggish new construction, and inflation.

Overall, the new federal mortgage policies aim to make homeownership more accessible to Canadians, particularly younger generations, while also addressing the broader housing market challenges.


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