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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Ontario Unveils Ambitious Economic Update

 

Ontario’s Finance Minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, is set to present the province’s fall economic statement today, which Premier Doug Ford describes as an ambitious plan aimed at building highways, hospitals, and homes. The update, often referred to as a mini-budget, will include several key measures designed to address affordability and infrastructure needs.

One of the headline announcements is a $200 rebate cheque for nearly every adult in the province, with an additional $200 for each child. This move, which has been met with both praise and criticism, is part of a broader strategy to provide immediate financial relief to Ontarians. Critics, however, have labeled it a “gimmick” and a “bribe” ahead of a potential early election in 2025.

The economic update will also extend the 5.7-cent gas tax cut through to June 2025, a measure that has been renewed bi-annually since July 2022. Additionally, the government plans to invest $225 million to break the Beer Store’s alcohol sales rights, allowing more corner stores and grocery outlets to sell alcohol.

Premier Ford emphasized that the economic update maintains the government’s path to balance, with the spring budget projecting deficits until 2026-27. The update is expected to provide clarity on the province’s debt, the cost of various government programs, and the overall economic outlook.

As the province navigates through these economic changes, the government’s focus remains on enhancing infrastructure and providing financial support to its residents.


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