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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada's Economy Shows Modest Growth in Q3 2024



Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1% in the third quarter of 2024, according to Statistics Canada. The growth was driven by increased consumer spending, particularly on new vehicles, and higher government expenditures.

Despite the positive growth, the figure fell short of the Bank of Canada's forecast of 1.5% annualized growth for the quarter. The slower business investment and lower exports also contributed to the modest growth rate. Additionally, real GDP per capita declined by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of per-capita GDP decline.

Economists are closely watching these trends as the country navigates through economic challenges and uncertainties. The government remains optimistic about the economy's resilience and is expected to introduce measures to stimulate further growth.




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