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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canada's Economy Shows Modest Growth in Q3 2024



Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1% in the third quarter of 2024, according to Statistics Canada. The growth was driven by increased consumer spending, particularly on new vehicles, and higher government expenditures.

Despite the positive growth, the figure fell short of the Bank of Canada's forecast of 1.5% annualized growth for the quarter. The slower business investment and lower exports also contributed to the modest growth rate. Additionally, real GDP per capita declined by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of per-capita GDP decline.

Economists are closely watching these trends as the country navigates through economic challenges and uncertainties. The government remains optimistic about the economy's resilience and is expected to introduce measures to stimulate further growth.




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