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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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S&P 500 Futures Retreat from 6,000 Milestone as Post-Election Rally Eases

 

Premarket Update: The S&P 500 futures have dipped below the 6,000-point mark, cooling off after a significant rally driven by Donald Trump’s presidential election victory and a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 futures surpassed the 6,000 milestone for the first time, buoyed by expectations of a more business-friendly regulatory environment under Trump’s administration and the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut. However, the momentum has slowed as traders digest the implications of Trump’s proposed fiscal policies, which include expansive spending plans and potential tariff hikes.

Despite the slight pullback, the overall market sentiment remains positive. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track for their best week in nearly a year, while the Nasdaq is set for its best performance in two months. Investors are also keeping an eye on upcoming economic data, including the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for November and a speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman.

Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, noted that strong earnings and economic growth, coupled with the Fed’s supportive stance, are expected to continue driving the market higher in the medium term. However, the path forward may be complicated by inflationary pressures stemming from Trump’s fiscal policies.

As the market adjusts to the new political landscape, traders have trimmed expectations for further rate cuts next year, leading to a rise in bond yields. The immediate impact on Wall Street has been relatively muted, with all three major indexes closing around record highs on Thursday.


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