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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...

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S&P 500 Futures Retreat from 6,000 Milestone as Post-Election Rally Eases

 

Premarket Update: The S&P 500 futures have dipped below the 6,000-point mark, cooling off after a significant rally driven by Donald Trump’s presidential election victory and a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 futures surpassed the 6,000 milestone for the first time, buoyed by expectations of a more business-friendly regulatory environment under Trump’s administration and the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut. However, the momentum has slowed as traders digest the implications of Trump’s proposed fiscal policies, which include expansive spending plans and potential tariff hikes.

Despite the slight pullback, the overall market sentiment remains positive. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track for their best week in nearly a year, while the Nasdaq is set for its best performance in two months. Investors are also keeping an eye on upcoming economic data, including the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for November and a speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman.

Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, noted that strong earnings and economic growth, coupled with the Fed’s supportive stance, are expected to continue driving the market higher in the medium term. However, the path forward may be complicated by inflationary pressures stemming from Trump’s fiscal policies.

As the market adjusts to the new political landscape, traders have trimmed expectations for further rate cuts next year, leading to a rise in bond yields. The immediate impact on Wall Street has been relatively muted, with all three major indexes closing around record highs on Thursday.


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