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Canada Holds Steady: Interest Rate Pause Signals Cautious Confidence

                      The Bank of Canada also held its policy rate at its last scheduled rate announcement in December. The Bank of Canada has opted to keep its key interest rate at 2.25% , a move that underscores a careful balancing act as the country approaches a pivotal moment in North American trade relations. With CUSMA (the Canada‑United States‑Mexico Agreement) negotiations on the horizon, policymakers appear intent on maintaining stability while assessing potential economic turbulence. The decision reflects a mix of optimism and prudence. Inflation has been easing gradually, giving the central bank some breathing room. At the same time, global economic uncertainty and the high stakes of upcoming trade talks mean officials are reluctant to introduce new variables into the financial system. By holding the rate steady, the Bank of Canada signals confidence in the economy’s underlying resilience while acknowledgin...
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Trump’s Re-election Sends Canadian Dollar to Four-Year Low

 

The re-election of Donald Trump has significantly impacted the currency markets, with the Canadian dollar (loonie) falling to a four-year low against the U.S. dollar. This phenomenon, often referred to as the “Trump trade,” has seen the loonie drop around 2% since the election and approximately 4% since September, when financial markets began anticipating Trump’s return to the White House.

The primary driver behind this decline is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, bolstered by expectations of Trump’s economic policies, which include tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and deregulation. These policies are anticipated to boost U.S. economic growth, increase the government deficit, and fuel inflation, leading to higher U.S. interest rates and a surging equity market.

For Canada, the weaker loonie has mixed implications. On one hand, it makes Canadian exports more competitive, potentially benefiting exporters. On the other hand, it raises the cost of imported goods, impacting Canadian consumers who will face higher prices for products coming from the U.S. The Bank of Canada has also been cutting interest rates faster than the U.S. Federal Reserve to stave off a recession, further contributing to the loonie’s decline.

Overall, the “Trump trade” underscores the interconnectedness of global economies and the significant influence of U.S. economic policies on international markets.


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