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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Decision Day, Fed, Loonie, Tariff Talks and OAS Boost

  Canadian Money Brief 5 Things to Know Today Wednesday, October 28, 2026 It’s a heavy day for Canadian wallets. The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision this morning, the U.S. Fed follows this afternoon, tariff talks are heating up, and bigger OAS deposits land in bank accounts. Here’s what to know. 1 The Bank of Canada decides this morning — a hike is widely expected The decision lands at 9:45 a.m. ET, along with a new Monetary Policy Report. Markets and economists expect a quarter-point increase to 2.50% from 2.25%, which would be the first hike since July 2023. Nineteen of 34 economists in a Reuters poll called for the move, and investors were pricing roughly a 75% chance on Tuesday. The case for it: inflation hit 3.1% in September, driven almost entirely by energy, even as core measures eased below 2%. What it means for you A hike would likely lift prime rates quickly, so variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs feel it first. Roughly, 0.25 points adds about $250 a year per $...

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Trump’s Re-election Sends Canadian Dollar to Four-Year Low

 

The re-election of Donald Trump has significantly impacted the currency markets, with the Canadian dollar (loonie) falling to a four-year low against the U.S. dollar. This phenomenon, often referred to as the “Trump trade,” has seen the loonie drop around 2% since the election and approximately 4% since September, when financial markets began anticipating Trump’s return to the White House.

The primary driver behind this decline is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, bolstered by expectations of Trump’s economic policies, which include tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and deregulation. These policies are anticipated to boost U.S. economic growth, increase the government deficit, and fuel inflation, leading to higher U.S. interest rates and a surging equity market.

For Canada, the weaker loonie has mixed implications. On one hand, it makes Canadian exports more competitive, potentially benefiting exporters. On the other hand, it raises the cost of imported goods, impacting Canadian consumers who will face higher prices for products coming from the U.S. The Bank of Canada has also been cutting interest rates faster than the U.S. Federal Reserve to stave off a recession, further contributing to the loonie’s decline.

Overall, the “Trump trade” underscores the interconnectedness of global economies and the significant influence of U.S. economic policies on international markets.


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