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5 Things to Know Today: US Inflation Day, Canada’s Job Losses and Oil Near $106 | Oct. 14, 2026

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Good morning. The biggest number of the day lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could shape where mortgage rates and the loonie go next. Here are the five things worth knowing before you start your day. 1 US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET September U.S. CPI is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Economists expect headline inflation to climb to roughly 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4% in August, a gasoline-driven jump of about 0.6% on the month, while core inflation is seen cooling to around 0.2% month over month. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, but September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets now see roughly a one-in-four chance of another hike in October, with December still largely priced in. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print can push bond yields higher, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond. A cooler one eases the pressu...
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Trump’s Re-election Sends Canadian Dollar to Four-Year Low

 

The re-election of Donald Trump has significantly impacted the currency markets, with the Canadian dollar (loonie) falling to a four-year low against the U.S. dollar. This phenomenon, often referred to as the “Trump trade,” has seen the loonie drop around 2% since the election and approximately 4% since September, when financial markets began anticipating Trump’s return to the White House.

The primary driver behind this decline is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, bolstered by expectations of Trump’s economic policies, which include tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and deregulation. These policies are anticipated to boost U.S. economic growth, increase the government deficit, and fuel inflation, leading to higher U.S. interest rates and a surging equity market.

For Canada, the weaker loonie has mixed implications. On one hand, it makes Canadian exports more competitive, potentially benefiting exporters. On the other hand, it raises the cost of imported goods, impacting Canadian consumers who will face higher prices for products coming from the U.S. The Bank of Canada has also been cutting interest rates faster than the U.S. Federal Reserve to stave off a recession, further contributing to the loonie’s decline.

Overall, the “Trump trade” underscores the interconnectedness of global economies and the significant influence of U.S. economic policies on international markets.


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