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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...

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Trump's Tariff Man: What Howard Lutnick's Appointment Means for Canada

 

President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Howard Lutnick, a Wall Street heavyweight and co-leader of Trump's transition team, as his Secretary of Commerce and the point man for his tariff and trade agenda. Lutnick's appointment signals a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, with potential major implications for Canada.

Lutnick has publicly shared his views on tariffs, emphasizing that they will not be applied indiscriminately. Instead, he envisions tariffs serving two main purposes: influencing specific industries and acting as a negotiating tool to lower trade barriers with other countries. This approach aims to create a more level playing field for American businesses, particularly in the automotive sector, where Lutnick has highlighted the need for fairer competition with European and Japanese manufacturers.

For Canada, the impact of Trump's tariff plan could be substantial. Estimates suggest that the tariffs could cost Canada's economy anywhere from a half-per cent to five per cent of GDP, depending on their design and implementation. The energy sector, a major Canadian export to the U.S., might see less impact, but the automotive industry could face significant challenges.

As Lutnick takes on his new role, Canadian officials and businesses will be closely monitoring the developments to understand how these changes will affect cross-border trade and the broader economic relationship between the two countries.

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