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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Trump's Tariff Man: What Howard Lutnick's Appointment Means for Canada

 

President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Howard Lutnick, a Wall Street heavyweight and co-leader of Trump's transition team, as his Secretary of Commerce and the point man for his tariff and trade agenda. Lutnick's appointment signals a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, with potential major implications for Canada.

Lutnick has publicly shared his views on tariffs, emphasizing that they will not be applied indiscriminately. Instead, he envisions tariffs serving two main purposes: influencing specific industries and acting as a negotiating tool to lower trade barriers with other countries. This approach aims to create a more level playing field for American businesses, particularly in the automotive sector, where Lutnick has highlighted the need for fairer competition with European and Japanese manufacturers.

For Canada, the impact of Trump's tariff plan could be substantial. Estimates suggest that the tariffs could cost Canada's economy anywhere from a half-per cent to five per cent of GDP, depending on their design and implementation. The energy sector, a major Canadian export to the U.S., might see less impact, but the automotive industry could face significant challenges.

As Lutnick takes on his new role, Canadian officials and businesses will be closely monitoring the developments to understand how these changes will affect cross-border trade and the broader economic relationship between the two countries.

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