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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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U.S. Consumer Prices Rise in October, Slowing Progress Toward Low Inflation

 

U.S. consumer prices increased as anticipated in October, reflecting a continued but modest rise in inflation. According to the latest data from the Labor Department, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% for the fourth consecutive month. Over the past year, the CPI has advanced by 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September.

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a 0.3% increase in October, maintaining the same pace for the third month in a row. Annually, the core CPI has risen by 3.3%.

Economists had predicted these figures, indicating that while inflation is not accelerating, the progress toward achieving the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% inflation has slowed. This trend suggests that the Federal Reserve may be less inclined to implement further interest rate cuts in the near future.

The slight uptick in inflation is partly attributed to rising shelter costs, which accounted for more than half of the overall increase in prices. Despite the modest gains, the inflation rate remains significantly lower than the peak of 9.1% seen in June 2022.

As the Federal Reserve continues to monitor these developments, the economic outlook remains cautious, with potential implications for future monetary policy decisions.


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