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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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U.S. Intelligence Chair Urges Canada to Boost Defense Spending: "You're Already Past Due"

 

The chair of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee has issued a sharp call to Canada, urging the nation to increase its defense spending to meet NATO commitments. Speaking during a high-profile visit to Ottawa, the chair emphasized the importance of Canada's role in collective security, particularly amid rising global threats.

“Canada has been a steadfast ally, but in terms of defense spending, you're already past due,” the U.S. official stated, referencing NATO’s guideline that member states allocate at least 2% of their GDP to defense. Currently, Canada falls significantly short of that target, drawing criticism from some allies.

The plea comes as tensions escalate globally, with NATO facing challenges from Russia’s war in Ukraine and emerging threats in the Indo-Pacific. U.S. officials have stressed that a stronger Canadian defense budget would enhance both regional stability and the alliance’s collective strength.

In response, Canadian officials acknowledged the concerns but highlighted recent investments in military modernization, including plans to upgrade NORAD and acquire new fighter jets. Critics within Canada argue, however, that the pace of these efforts remains too slow to meet current demands.

As pressure mounts, the debate over Canada’s defense spending is expected to intensify in political and public forums.


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