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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...

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Boxing Day Sales See Smaller Crowds Despite GST Break

 

Retailers across the country experienced smaller crowds and cautious spending on Boxing Day this year, despite the federal government's GST holiday. While the tax break, which makes a variety of items GST-free for two months, did attract some shoppers, many consumers remained hesitant due to ongoing cost of living concerns.

Shoppers at Fairview Mall in Toronto, like Nakul Singal, took advantage of the deals but expressed that the tax break alone wasn't enough to offset the high costs of living**. Singal mentioned, "It's good to shop around during this time, but we're still struggling with expenses, especially housing.

Retail Council of Canada's Matt Poirier noted that businesses faced challenges implementing the tax break on short notice, and some older payment systems struggled to adapt.  An RBC Economics report also indicated that retail spending slowed in November, with holiday spending slightly below 2023 levels over the Black Friday weekend.

Despite these challenges, some retailers, like GameStop in north Toronto, saw an influx of customers eager to benefit from the tax holiday. Assistant store manager Joey Comia-Orellano said, "We've been getting shoppers before Boxing Day, and we expect it to get busier as consumers look to save with Boxing Day deals combined with the tax break."

Overall, while the GST break provided some relief, it wasn't enough to fully counteract the economic pressures faced by many Canadians.




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