Canada's Economy Shows Mixed Signals: Strong Growth in October, Contraction in November

 

Canada's economy exceeded market expectations with 0.3% growth in October, led by increases in oil and gas extraction and manufacturing, but gross domestic product likely contracted in November, data showed on Monday.

Analysts had forecast a 0.2% month-over-month rise in October, but the actual growth rate was higher. September's growth rate was also upwardly revised to 0.2% from an initial report of 0.1%. However, preliminary estimates for November indicate a contraction of 0.1%.

The stronger-than-expected growth in October was driven by a rebound in the goods-producing industry, which rose 0.9% after shrinking for four consecutive months. The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector expanded 2.4% after three straight months of declines. Manufacturing also saw a rise of 0.3% in October.

Despite the positive performance in October, the preliminary data for November suggests a contraction, with declines in sectors including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, as well as transportation and warehousing. These declines were partially offset by increases in accommodation and food services and real estate and rental and leasing.

The Bank of Canada has been cutting interest rates to address slower growth, with a recent 50 basis point reduction bringing the key policy rate to 3.25%. The central bank will release fresh forecasts along with its next rate decision on January 29.

With October's stronger-than-expected gain and November's decline, the industry-based data point to the economy growing at a 1.7% annualized pace in the final quarter, assuming December growth is flat.