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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada's Inflation Rate Cools to 1.9% in November


Canada's annual inflation rate slowed to 1.9% in November, down from 2% in October. This slight decrease was driven by a broad-based slowdown in prices, particularly in travel tours and mortgage interest costs. The consumer price index remained unchanged on a monthly basis.

Economists had anticipated the inflation rate to hold steady at 2%, but the data showed a more significant deceleration. The Bank of Canada, which has been working to control inflation, will consider this data in its upcoming rate decision on January 29.

The cooling inflation rate is a positive sign for the Canadian economy, which has been facing challenges this year. The central bank has already cut interest rates by 175 basis points since June to stimulate growth.



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