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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Canada's Unemployment Rate Hits 6.8% Amidst Job Market Challenges


Despite a significant increase in hiring, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November, marking the highest level since January 2017, excluding the pandemic period. The economy added 51,000 jobs last month, with most of the gains in full-time employment. However, the rise in unemployment was driven by more people entering the job market, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market.

The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring these developments as it prepares for its upcoming interest rate decision. High interest rates have cooled the labor market over the past year, leading to longer periods of unemployment for many Canadians. The job report also highlighted that 46.3% of unemployed Canadians in November had not worked in the last year or had never worked, up from 39.5% a year ago.

As the country navigates these economic headwinds, the focus remains on balancing job growth with inflation control and interest rate adjustments.




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