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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Canada's Unemployment Rate Hits 6.8% Amidst Job Market Challenges


Despite a significant increase in hiring, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November, marking the highest level since January 2017, excluding the pandemic period. The economy added 51,000 jobs last month, with most of the gains in full-time employment. However, the rise in unemployment was driven by more people entering the job market, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market.

The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring these developments as it prepares for its upcoming interest rate decision. High interest rates have cooled the labor market over the past year, leading to longer periods of unemployment for many Canadians. The job report also highlighted that 46.3% of unemployed Canadians in November had not worked in the last year or had never worked, up from 39.5% a year ago.

As the country navigates these economic headwinds, the focus remains on balancing job growth with inflation control and interest rate adjustments.




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