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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Congress in Crisis: Scrambling to Avert Government Shutdown



In a dramatic turn of events, the U.S. Congress is racing against the clock to prevent a partial government shutdown. This urgency follows the rejection of a demand by President-elect Donald Trump to lift the nation's debt ceiling. The House of Representatives, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, is attempting to navigate a narrow path that can satisfy both the Republican-controlled House and the Democratic-majority Senate as the midnight Friday funding deadline looms.

Conservative Republicans recently dismissed Trump's call for a five-year suspension of the U.S. debt ceiling, which could have added trillions more to the government's $36 trillion debt. This rejection has left Congress without a clear plan to avoid the shutdown. The situation is further complicated by Trump's insistence on extending the debt ceiling to 2029, a demand that has not gained traction among lawmakers.

The failure of a hastily revised alternative bill, which aimed to keep the federal budget running at its current level through March and provide $100 billion in disaster relief, has added to the uncertainty. This bill was rejected by a vote of 174-235, highlighting the deep divisions within the Republican Party and the broader Congress.

As the deadline approaches, the pressure is mounting on Congress to find a solution that can avert the shutdown and ensure the continued functioning of the federal government. The stakes are high, with potential disruptions to government services and paychecks for federal workers hanging in the balance.

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