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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland Resigns Amid Budget Deficit Blowout

 

In a shocking turn of events, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's cabinet on Monday. The announcement came just hours before the release of the government's fall economic statement, which revealed a staggering budget deficit of C$61.9 billion, overshooting the target by C$20 billion.

Freeland cited disagreements with Trudeau over the government's economic policies as the primary reason for her departure. She expressed concerns about the "costly political gimmicks" and urged the Prime Minister to collaborate more closely with the country's premiers to address economic challenges.

The fall economic statement, tabled by Government House Leader Karina Gould in Freeland's absence, included over C$20 billion in new spending and highlighted the growing fiscal deficit. The government also pledged C$1.3 billion for border security measures in response to threats of steep tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Freeland's resignation has thrown the government into disarray, raising questions about the future direction of Canada's economic policies and the potential impact on the upcoming general elections.



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