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Oil Swings, Records Fall, and Bank Earnings Roll In: Markets Update — May 28, 2026

  Thursday is shaping up to be an eventful one for markets. A sharp rebound in oil prices — triggered by fresh U.S. military strikes in Iran overnight — is rattling futures this morning, even as Wall Street closed at fresh records on Wednesday. Here in Canada, the TSX pulled back sharply, weighed down by energy-sector volatility and mixed signals from the big banks. Traders are also keeping a close eye on two major U.S. data releases due today: April PCE inflation and the Q1 GDP second estimate. Canada The TSX had a rough Wednesday. The S&P/TSX Composite shed 241.82 points — roughly 0.70% — to close at 34,412.05, as energy stocks were dragged lower by falling crude prices. The loonie dipped slightly as well, with the Canadian dollar trading at 72.29 cents U.S., compared with 72.40 cents the day before. It's a big week for Canadian bank earnings, and results so far have been mixed but largely solid. Bank of Nova Scotia and BMO Financial Group both reported stronger second-quar...
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Market Predicts 50 Basis Point Rate Cut by BoC Amidst Weak Job Data

 

In a surprising turn of events, money markets are now heavily betting on an oversized 50 basis point rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) next week, following today's disappointing jobs data. Analysts had anticipated a more conservative cut, but the weaker-than-expected employment figures have shifted expectations dramatically.

The BoC had previously cut interest rates by 50 basis points in October, bringing the rate down to 3.75%. This move was aimed at curbing inflation and supporting economic growth. However, today's job data revealed a sluggish labor market, with modest job layoffs and weak business hiring, particularly affecting young people and newcomers to Canada.

Economists are now predicting that the BoC will take a more aggressive stance to stimulate the economy, with a 50 basis point cut seen as necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target and support economic recovery. The market's reaction underscores the growing concerns about the economic outlook and the need for more substantial measures to boost growth.

As the BoC prepares for its December rate decision, all eyes will be on the central bank to see if it follows through with the anticipated rate cut. The decision will have significant implications for borrowing costs and overall economic activity in Canada.



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