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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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Third Time's the Charm? Canadian Government Faces Another Tory Non-Confidence Vote

 

In Ottawa today, the Liberal government is bracing for its third Conservative non-confidence vote. Despite the tension, the government is expected to survive, thanks to the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP).

The motion, which quotes NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's criticisms of the Liberals, calls for the House to agree with Singh and vote to bring down the government. However, Singh has already stated he will not support the Conservatives, making the motion's failure likely.

In addition to the non-confidence vote, the House will also vote on an NDP motion to expand the GST break and the $250 "working Canadians rebate" to fully retired seniors and people relying on disability benefits. These votes come as the House faces a deadline to approve billions of dollars in government spending, including $21.6 billion for housing, dental care, and the national school food program.

The House has been gridlocked since late September due to a Conservative filibuster over a privilege motion related to the Liberals' refusal to provide unredacted documents about a now-defunct green technology fund. This gridlock was temporarily paused by House Speaker Greg Fergus to allow for the spending debate and opposition motions.

As the political drama unfolds, Canadians are watching closely to see if the government can navigate these turbulent waters and continue to function effectively.




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