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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Third Time's the Charm? Canadian Government Faces Another Tory Non-Confidence Vote

 

In Ottawa today, the Liberal government is bracing for its third Conservative non-confidence vote. Despite the tension, the government is expected to survive, thanks to the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP).

The motion, which quotes NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's criticisms of the Liberals, calls for the House to agree with Singh and vote to bring down the government. However, Singh has already stated he will not support the Conservatives, making the motion's failure likely.

In addition to the non-confidence vote, the House will also vote on an NDP motion to expand the GST break and the $250 "working Canadians rebate" to fully retired seniors and people relying on disability benefits. These votes come as the House faces a deadline to approve billions of dollars in government spending, including $21.6 billion for housing, dental care, and the national school food program.

The House has been gridlocked since late September due to a Conservative filibuster over a privilege motion related to the Liberals' refusal to provide unredacted documents about a now-defunct green technology fund. This gridlock was temporarily paused by House Speaker Greg Fergus to allow for the spending debate and opposition motions.

As the political drama unfolds, Canadians are watching closely to see if the government can navigate these turbulent waters and continue to function effectively.




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