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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Arctic Chill and Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Grip Ontario

Ontario is currently experiencing a dangerous Arctic freeze, with lake-effect snow squalls continuing to impact the region. The Arctic airmass has brought bitterly cold temperatures, causing snow squalls off the still-unfrozen Great Lakes. Snow squall watches and warnings are in effect for several areas, with parts of southern Ontario expected to see over 40 cm of snow accumulation through Wednesday.

Extreme cold warnings have been issued for all of northern Ontario, where wind chills as low as -50°C are forecast. These frigid conditions pose a significant risk of frostbite and hypothermia, with temperatures expected to remain below freezing for the next few days.

Residents are advised to bundle up with extra layers, limit outdoor exposure, and be cautious while traveling due to poor visibility and slippery road conditions. Stay safe and warm during this extreme weather event!


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