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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Bank of Canada Cuts Rate by Quarter Point Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada announced a quarter-point reduction in its key interest rate on Wednesday, bringing it down to 3%. This marks the sixth consecutive rate cut since June 2024. The central bank cited stabilized inflation and a strengthening economy as reasons for the cut. However, it also highlighted the looming threat of U.S. tariffs as a significant source of uncertainty.

Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that while the economy is showing signs of improvement, the potential for broad-based tariffs could pose a major challenge. The Bank of Canada revised its GDP growth forecast downward to 1.8% for 2025 and 2026, factoring in lower population growth and increased policy uncertainty.

The central bank presented several scenarios in which tariffs could impact the economy, projecting a potential reduction in GDP by 2.4% in the first year if tariffs are imposed. Macklem stated that the bank would closely monitor developments and assess the implications for economic activity and monetary policy.

The decision to cut rates comes as the U.S. threatens to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods. The Bank of Canada warned that such tariffs could lead to a recession in Canada, but it also indicated that it might refrain from further monetary policy support to avoid reigniting inflation.

The central bank's cautious approach reflects the delicate balance it must maintain in the face of economic uncertainties and the potential for a trade war with the U.S.




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