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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Carney's Bold Move: Scrapping Carbon Pricing for Green Incentives

 

In a surprising turn of events, Mark Carney, a leading candidate for the Liberal Party leadership, has announced his intention to scrap the consumer carbon tax if he becomes Prime Minister. Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor and United Nations special envoy for climate action, plans to replace the tax with a green incentive program aimed at rewarding Canadians for making environmentally friendly choices.

Carney's proposed plan includes incentives for purchasing energy-efficient appliances, electric vehicles, and improving home insulation. He believes that the current consumer carbon tax has become too divisive and is not effectively achieving its intended goals. Instead, Carney aims to shift the focus towards positive reinforcement, encouraging Canadians to adopt greener practices through financial rewards.

The industrial carbon pricing system, however, will remain in place. Carney's plan also includes measures to ensure that big polluters, such as oil and gas companies, contribute their fair share towards reducing emissions. This approach aims to balance environmental responsibility with economic growth, positioning Canada as a leader in the global fight against climate change.

Carney's announcement marks a significant shift in the Liberal Party's climate policy, which has been a cornerstone of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's administration since 2019. The move has sparked a debate within the party and among Canadians about the best approach to tackle climate change while maintaining economic stability.



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