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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Trudeau's Resignation and CRA's Persistent Issues: A Taxpayer's Dilemma

 

The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has thrown the proposed capital gains tax hike into uncertainty. Initially introduced in the April 2024 federal budget, the capital gains inclusion rate proposals aimed to increase the inclusion rate from 50% to 67%. However, with Trudeau's resignation and the prorogation of Parliament, these proposals are now on life support.

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) has stated that it will continue to apply the proposed increases even if an election is called. This decision has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that the CRA's administrative policies are not being respected. Despite the political chaos, the CRA maintains that its long-standing practice of asking taxpayers to file based on proposed legislation is proper and grounded in parliamentary convention.

The uncertainty surrounding the capital gains tax hike and the CRA's handling of the situation has left taxpayers in a difficult position. As the political landscape continues to shift, the future of the capital gains proposals remains unclear.


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