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5 Things to Know Today: Canada Enters Recession, Oil Slips on Iran Ceasefire Talk

Saturday, May 30, 2026 — Your quick-hit Canadian financial briefing for the day. 1.Canada Officially Meets the Definition of a Technical Recession Statistics Canada confirmed Friday that real GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026 — following a revised 1.0% drop in Q4 2025 . That's two straight quarters of negative growth, which meets the technical definition of a recession. The miss was a big one: economists had forecast growth of 1.5% . The main culprits were a surge in imports (up 2.9%, largely gold), declining business capital investment (down 0.7% — its fifth consecutive quarterly drop ), and weakness in resource extraction and construction. On a per-capita basis, GDP actually edged up 0.2% as Canada's population shrank for the second quarter in a row. Not everyone is ready to call it a full recession: some economists note that three of the four weak months were isolated, and early April data points to a sharp 0.4% rebound . Still, the numbers ...
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Trudeau's Resignation and CRA's Persistent Issues: A Taxpayer's Dilemma

 

The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has thrown the proposed capital gains tax hike into uncertainty. Initially introduced in the April 2024 federal budget, the capital gains inclusion rate proposals aimed to increase the inclusion rate from 50% to 67%. However, with Trudeau's resignation and the prorogation of Parliament, these proposals are now on life support.

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) has stated that it will continue to apply the proposed increases even if an election is called. This decision has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that the CRA's administrative policies are not being respected. Despite the political chaos, the CRA maintains that its long-standing practice of asking taxpayers to file based on proposed legislation is proper and grounded in parliamentary convention.

The uncertainty surrounding the capital gains tax hike and the CRA's handling of the situation has left taxpayers in a difficult position. As the political landscape continues to shift, the future of the capital gains proposals remains unclear.


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