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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Trudeau's Resignation and CRA's Persistent Issues: A Taxpayer's Dilemma

 

The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has thrown the proposed capital gains tax hike into uncertainty. Initially introduced in the April 2024 federal budget, the capital gains inclusion rate proposals aimed to increase the inclusion rate from 50% to 67%. However, with Trudeau's resignation and the prorogation of Parliament, these proposals are now on life support.

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) has stated that it will continue to apply the proposed increases even if an election is called. This decision has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that the CRA's administrative policies are not being respected. Despite the political chaos, the CRA maintains that its long-standing practice of asking taxpayers to file based on proposed legislation is proper and grounded in parliamentary convention.

The uncertainty surrounding the capital gains tax hike and the CRA's handling of the situation has left taxpayers in a difficult position. As the political landscape continues to shift, the future of the capital gains proposals remains unclear.


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