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CUSMA Not Renewed: What the Trade Deal Impasse Means for Your Wallet

  July 2, 2026 | Trade & Economy The mandatory six-year review of Canada's most important trade agreement came and went this week — and it did not go the way Ottawa hoped. On July 1, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that the United States will not renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in its current form, sending the deal into a more uncertain, year-by-year footing right as Canadians are already navigating tariffs, a soft labour market, and a technical recession. Here is what actually happened, why it matters, and what it could mean for your budget in the months ahead. The short version CUSMA isn't dead. It remains legally in force until 2036. But instead of locking in a fresh 16-year term, the deal now shifts into annual reviews, with existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and softwood lumber unresolved for now. What happened on July 1 CUSMA was built with a mandatory joint review every six years. If Canada, the U.S. and Mexico had a...
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Tariff Tensions: Trump Threatens 25% on Canadian Goods, Hints at a 10% Oil Levy

 

In a provocative statement aimed at pressuring North American trade partners, President Donald Trump has warned that Canada could face a sweeping 25% tariff on its imports if its policies on border security and drug trafficking remain unchanged. However, in a notable twist, the President suggested that Canadian oil might be subject to a more moderate 10% levy rather than the full tariff rate, a move that could help cushion the blow for one of Canada’s key exports. citeturn0search2

Trump’s remarks underscore his administration’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool to enforce stricter border controls and compel reforms on issues such as the illegal flow of fentanyl into the United States. While the threat of a 25% tariff has raised concerns among Canadian officials about the potential for retaliatory measures, the possibility of a lower levy on oil imports appears to be a calculated effort to avoid disrupting an energy market that is critical to both economies.

Economic analysts caution that imposing such tariffs could trigger a ripple effect—raising prices for American consumers and unsettling the tightly woven trade ties between the two nations. As both sides prepare for what may be intense negotiations in the coming weeks, the broader implications of this tariff strategy are being closely watched by businesses and policymakers alike.

The coming days are expected to bring heated discussions as Canada and the United States seek a resolution that preserves mutual economic interests while addressing the contentious issues at the border.

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