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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds Near 80%, Oil Tops US$100, Loonie Hits 5-Week High

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Saturday, October 24, 2026 The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates on Wednesday, oil is back above US$100 and stocks slipped on AI worries. Here are the five things to know this Saturday, and what each one means for your wallet. 1 The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike on Wednesday Markets are putting roughly an 80% chance on a quarter-point increase at the Bank of Canada’s Oct. 28 decision, which would lift the policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. A majority of economists polled by Reuters also expect a second hike by the end of March. The shift followed hawkish comments from Governor Tiff Macklem about a higher inflation outlook driven by oil. What it means for you Every 0.25-point increase adds about $250 a year (roughly $21 a month) for each $100,000 of prime-linked debt, such as a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC. Fixed-rate holders are not hit directly, but renewals are being priced off higher bond yields. Savers may see HISA and...
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Tariff Tensions: Trump Threatens 25% on Canadian Goods, Hints at a 10% Oil Levy

 

In a provocative statement aimed at pressuring North American trade partners, President Donald Trump has warned that Canada could face a sweeping 25% tariff on its imports if its policies on border security and drug trafficking remain unchanged. However, in a notable twist, the President suggested that Canadian oil might be subject to a more moderate 10% levy rather than the full tariff rate, a move that could help cushion the blow for one of Canada’s key exports. citeturn0search2

Trump’s remarks underscore his administration’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool to enforce stricter border controls and compel reforms on issues such as the illegal flow of fentanyl into the United States. While the threat of a 25% tariff has raised concerns among Canadian officials about the potential for retaliatory measures, the possibility of a lower levy on oil imports appears to be a calculated effort to avoid disrupting an energy market that is critical to both economies.

Economic analysts caution that imposing such tariffs could trigger a ripple effect—raising prices for American consumers and unsettling the tightly woven trade ties between the two nations. As both sides prepare for what may be intense negotiations in the coming weeks, the broader implications of this tariff strategy are being closely watched by businesses and policymakers alike.

The coming days are expected to bring heated discussions as Canada and the United States seek a resolution that preserves mutual economic interests while addressing the contentious issues at the border.

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