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Markets Brief: Iran Deal Hopes Drive Global Rally — TSX Eyes a Strong Open | May 29, 2026

It's been a week dominated by one headline: the U.S.-Iran war and the fragile hopes of a peace deal. Heading into the long weekend, markets are ending Friday on an optimistic note, with record-setting sessions in Asia and a strong tone across North America. Here's your full wrap. Canada — TSX After a rough patch mid-week, the TSX bounced back Thursday — its first gain since Monday's record close — finishing up around 0.7% to the 34,770s range, driven largely by a blockbuster round of Big Six bank earnings. All six of Canada's largest banks beat analysts' estimates for Q2 (quarter ended April 30), raising dividends and signalling cautious optimism despite the volatile global backdrop. RBC posted a standout quarter, with its Wealth Management division up 28% year-over-year. TD Bank earned $4.25 billion in adjusted net income ($2.38/share), topping expectations, and raised its dividend. CIBC's profit surged 43%, with adjusted EPS of $2.76 beating consensus by a wid...

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Tariff Tensions: Trump Threatens 25% on Canadian Goods, Hints at a 10% Oil Levy

 

In a provocative statement aimed at pressuring North American trade partners, President Donald Trump has warned that Canada could face a sweeping 25% tariff on its imports if its policies on border security and drug trafficking remain unchanged. However, in a notable twist, the President suggested that Canadian oil might be subject to a more moderate 10% levy rather than the full tariff rate, a move that could help cushion the blow for one of Canada’s key exports. citeturn0search2

Trump’s remarks underscore his administration’s strategy of using tariffs as a negotiating tool to enforce stricter border controls and compel reforms on issues such as the illegal flow of fentanyl into the United States. While the threat of a 25% tariff has raised concerns among Canadian officials about the potential for retaliatory measures, the possibility of a lower levy on oil imports appears to be a calculated effort to avoid disrupting an energy market that is critical to both economies.

Economic analysts caution that imposing such tariffs could trigger a ripple effect—raising prices for American consumers and unsettling the tightly woven trade ties between the two nations. As both sides prepare for what may be intense negotiations in the coming weeks, the broader implications of this tariff strategy are being closely watched by businesses and policymakers alike.

The coming days are expected to bring heated discussions as Canada and the United States seek a resolution that preserves mutual economic interests while addressing the contentious issues at the border.

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