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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Trump Announces Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Decision on Oil Pending

 

President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting this Saturday. This decision has already caused significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets, with both the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso experiencing notable declines.

Trump's decision to impose these tariffs is driven by multiple factors, including the influx of migrants at the southern border, the flow of fentanyl into the United States, and the trade deficit with these neighboring countries. The President has also indicated that he is still considering whether to include oil imports from Canada and Mexico in these tariffs, with a decision expected soon.

The potential inclusion of oil in the tariffs has raised concerns about the impact on energy prices and the broader economy. The United States imports significant quantities of oil from both Canada and Mexico, and tariffs could lead to higher gasoline prices for American consumers. Despite these concerns, Trump has expressed confidence that the U.S. can meet its own energy needs without relying on imports.

The announcement has prompted reactions from various stakeholders, with some experts warning that the tariffs could lead to increased prices for American consumers and potential economic repercussions for Canada and Mexico. The situation remains fluid, with further developments expected in the coming days.



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