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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Trump Reaffirms Tariff Threats Against Canada at Davos

In a virtual address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his stance on imposing tariffs against Canada. Trump emphasized that the United States does not need Canadian imports of oil, gas, vehicles, or lumber, and criticized Canada's trade policies as unfair.

Trump's comments come just days after his inauguration for a second term, marking his first international speech since returning to the White House. He characterized the trade relationship between the two nations as adversarial and blamed Canada's import policies for the U.S.'s trade deficit.

During his speech, Trump highlighted his administration's protectionist plans, including tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts, aimed at reducing inflation and boosting the U.S. economy. He also mentioned that the U.S. would demand respect from other nations and would not tolerate trade deficits.

Canadian political leaders have expressed concern over Trump's remarks, with some advocating for diplomacy and others preparing for potential retaliation. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who recently met with Trump, emphasized the importance of cross-border trade within the oil and gas sectors.

Trump's speech has triggered widespread criticism and debate among political leaders and economists, who warn that tariffs on Canadian energy exports could drive up gasoline prices for Americans and threaten Trump's plans for "energy dominance".


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