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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Trump Threatens Economic Sanctions on Canada

 

In a dramatic return to the Oval Office, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced his intention to impose significant tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Trump, who was inaugurated for his second term just a day ago, stated that he plans to implement a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods starting February 1.

This announcement has sent shockwaves through the political and economic landscape, with Canadian leaders scrambling to respond. Ontario Premier Doug Ford emphasized the need for unity among Canadian provinces to confront Trump's aggressive trade policies. Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has expressed reluctance to fully support federal retaliation plans, citing concerns over Alberta's energy sector.

The proposed tariffs are part of a broader series of executive actions by Trump, which include withdrawing from the Paris climate accord and the World Health Organization, as well as threatening military action against drug cartels in Mexico. The situation remains fluid, with both countries bracing for potential economic fallout.


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