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What to Expect from the Bank of Canada on July 15 — And What It Means for Your Mortgage

  The next rate decision is just 17 days away. With inflation running hot, Canada in a technical recession, and mortgage rates on a knife's edge, here is everything you need to know before the announcement. The Short Answer: A Hold Is Almost Certain On July 15, 2026 , the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its sixth consecutive interest rate decision since October 2025 — and virtually every indicator points to another hold at 2.25% . The Bank has not moved its overnight rate since it cut to 2.25% last fall. After nine total cuts between June 2024 and October 2025, the easing cycle is effectively paused. Markets currently price the probability of a hike on July 15 at just 1%, and the chance of a cut at around the same slim odds. In other words: almost no one expects anything to change on announcement day. But a "hold" decision does not mean nothing matters. July 15 is one of four dates each year when the BoC releases a full Monetary Policy Report (MPR) alongside its rate ...

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Trump's 25% Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Set to Take Effect Saturday

The White House has announced that President Donald Trump will implement 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting this Saturday. This move is part of Trump's ongoing efforts to address trade deficits and concerns over the flow of illegal fentanyl into the United States.

The tariffs are expected to impact a wide range of goods, including produce, alcohol, and auto parts, potentially leading to higher prices for American consumers. The decision has already caused a dip in the Canadian dollar and raised concerns about the potential for a trade war.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has stated that Canada is prepared to respond forcefully if the tariffs are imposed, emphasizing that while this is not the desired outcome, Canada will take necessary actions to protect its interests.

The economic implications of these tariffs are significant, with experts predicting a potential recession in Canada if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period. The situation remains fluid, with further details expected to emerge as the implementation date approaches.


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