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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Trump's America First Trade Policy Targets Canada's Digital Services Tax

In a move that could further strain trade relations between the U.S. and Canada, President Donald Trump has signed an executive order targeting Canada's digital services tax (DST). The DST, enacted by the Liberal government last June, imposes a three percent tax on revenues over $20 million generated in Canada by foreign-based digital giants with incomes of at least $1.1 billion.

Trump's executive order directs the U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments, along with the United States Trade Representative, to investigate whether foreign countries are subjecting American citizens or corporations to discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes. This move is part of Trump's America First Trade Policy, which aims to ensure that America's trading relationships benefit American workers, manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, entrepreneurs, and businesses.

Business groups on both sides of the border have opposed the DST, and the Biden administration had previously requested dispute settlement consultations with Canada under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). However, the consultation period ended in November without further action. Trump's executive order could reignite the dispute, with potential tariffs or other unilateral actions against Canada.

The DST is one of the principal frictions in the trading relationship between the U.S. and Canada, and experts believe that Trump's administration is likely to take action until the tax is withdrawn or an agreement is reached. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has urged the Canadian government to scrap the tax in response to Trump's executive order.

As the investigation proceeds, the future of Canada's digital services tax remains uncertain, and the potential for increased tariffs or other trade measures looms large.

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