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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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US Dollar Suffers Largest Weekly Drop Since November 2023 Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The US dollar experienced its largest weekly decline since November 2023, driven by growing concerns over tariff policies. The currency dropped as much as 0.8% against a basket of currencies on Friday, before closing the week down 1.8%. This volatility was sparked by President Donald Trump's recent comments suggesting a softer stance on tariffs against China.

During an interview with Fox News, Trump mentioned that his conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping was friendly and expressed optimism about reaching a trade deal. This uncertainty around trade policy has kept equity markets on edge, with the S&P 500 index down 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 0.5%.

Analysts warn that the dollar could rise again if US tariff and interest rate policies shift. However, for now, the market remains cautious as it navigates through the ongoing trade policy uncertainties.




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