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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...

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A Temporary Truce, Enduring Tensions: North America's Economic Future in Question

 

A recent 30‐day pause on tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration on imports from Canada and Mexico—secured in exchange for enhanced border enforcement measures—provides only a short-term breather for North America’s deeply integrated economy . While officials from Washington, Ottawa, and Mexico City herald the move as a step toward preventing an all-out trade war, underlying vulnerabilities remain acute.

Despite the pause, significant uncertainty persists. The U.S. continues to enforce a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and has hinted at potential future measures against its largest trading partners. Economists warn that even a brief return to protectionist policies could disrupt critical supply chains—affecting sectors from automotive manufacturing to agriculture—and potentially spark consumer price hikes .

Moreover, the pause does little to resolve longstanding structural issues in the region’s trade framework. With North American markets intricately linked through decades of free trade, any renewed tariff action risks fragmenting an economic system that millions rely on for jobs and prosperity. Investors and businesses, meanwhile, remain cautious as they brace for what might be only a temporary lull in escalating tensions.

In short, while the tariff truce may ease immediate geopolitical pressures, it leaves open the possibility that deeper economic fault lines could soon re-emerge, threatening the stability of a continent built on interdependence and integrated commerce.

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