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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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A Temporary Truce, Enduring Tensions: North America's Economic Future in Question

 

A recent 30‐day pause on tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration on imports from Canada and Mexico—secured in exchange for enhanced border enforcement measures—provides only a short-term breather for North America’s deeply integrated economy . While officials from Washington, Ottawa, and Mexico City herald the move as a step toward preventing an all-out trade war, underlying vulnerabilities remain acute.

Despite the pause, significant uncertainty persists. The U.S. continues to enforce a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and has hinted at potential future measures against its largest trading partners. Economists warn that even a brief return to protectionist policies could disrupt critical supply chains—affecting sectors from automotive manufacturing to agriculture—and potentially spark consumer price hikes .

Moreover, the pause does little to resolve longstanding structural issues in the region’s trade framework. With North American markets intricately linked through decades of free trade, any renewed tariff action risks fragmenting an economic system that millions rely on for jobs and prosperity. Investors and businesses, meanwhile, remain cautious as they brace for what might be only a temporary lull in escalating tensions.

In short, while the tariff truce may ease immediate geopolitical pressures, it leaves open the possibility that deeper economic fault lines could soon re-emerge, threatening the stability of a continent built on interdependence and integrated commerce.

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