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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...
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Canada Braces for Lasting Economic Impact Amid U.S. Trade Tensions

 

The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council has issued a stark warning: a protracted trade conflict with the United States could permanently depress the nation’s GDP level. In recent meeting minutes, officials noted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy—exacerbated by the threat of significant tariffs—could lead to a lasting reduction in economic output.

With nearly 75% of Canadian exports destined for the U.S., even temporary disruptions could force businesses to recalibrate their investment plans and supply chains, resulting in a permanent shift in the country’s economic potential. The central bank’s decision to trim its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 3% underscores the urgency of addressing these risks amid rising inflation pressures and subdued business confidence.

While the exact outcomes remain uncertain, the consensus among policymakers is clear: unless the trade tensions are resolved, Canada may face a long-term decline in GDP growth, along with accompanying inflationary pressures that could complicate future economic recovery efforts. The Bank of Canada plans to monitor the situation closely, ready to adjust its policy stance as needed to mitigate these challenges.


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