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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...

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Canada Stands Ready to Strike Back at U.S. Tariffs

In a determined response to newly imposed U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that Canada will respond strongly if necessary. Speaking at an international summit in Paris, Trudeau described the tariffs as "unacceptable" and stressed that they threaten Canadian jobs and industries. “Canadians will stand up strongly and firmly if we need to,” he declared, signaling a readiness to use all available measures to protect the nation’s economic interests.

The tariffs—introduced by the U.S. administration as part of an aggressive trade policy—target key Canadian exports and have already stirred concern among Canadian businesses and political leaders. Trudeau’s remarks underscored the potential impact of the tariffs on Canada’s vital trade relationship with its closest neighbor. While U.S. officials defend the measures as necessary to protect American industries and address national security issues, Trudeau’s stance reflects a broader commitment to defending Canadian sovereignty and ensuring fair trade practices.

In addition to his strong verbal response, Trudeau hinted that Canada could impose retaliatory measures against U.S. products. Such actions may include targeted tariffs on a range of American goods, potentially affecting sectors from consumer products to industrial components. The prime minister’s approach is designed not only to protect Canadian workers but also to send a clear message internationally that Canada will not be bullied into accepting policies that could disrupt its economy.

As negotiations and discussions continue between the two nations, both sides appear to be bracing for further escalation. For now, Trudeau’s declaration reinforces Canada’s determination to safeguard its industries and uphold the integrity of one of the world’s most significant trading relationships.

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