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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Canada’s Employment Boom: 76,000 New Jobs Signal Economic Recove

 


Canada’s labour market made impressive gains in January as the economy added a net 76,000 jobs, helping push the unemployment rate down to 6.6%. The surge in employment far exceeded economists’ expectations, signaling renewed confidence amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.

A key driver behind the strong performance was the manufacturing sector, which contributed roughly 33,000 new positions. This development underscores the sector’s reliance on U.S. demand for Canadian exports, a factor that has become increasingly significant given current trade tensions. In addition to the manufacturing boost, full-time employment also saw a healthy increase while part-time roles added to the overall strength of the report.

Despite these encouraging signs, analysts remain cautious. Although the unemployment rate has fallen, it still points to some underlying slack in the labour market. Wage growth moderated slightly to 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, which could influence upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada. With the possibility of further interest rate cuts on the horizon, this robust job report is likely to play a crucial role in shaping economic policy in the coming months.

The latest figures paint a positive picture for Canada’s recovery, offering renewed optimism for a more resilient and dynamic economic future.

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