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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Countdown: What to Expect on July 15

  Published July 4, 2026 In eleven days, the Bank of Canada will make its fifth interest rate call of 2026. If you've got a mortgage renewing, a variable rate that moves with the Bank's decisions, or savings sitting in a high-interest account, this is the date to have circled. Here's where things stand heading into July 15, and what the smart money is expecting. Where the rate sits right now The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since its last two decisions, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The July 15 announcement, released at 9:45 a.m. ET, will also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, since the Bank publishes its detailed economic projections quarterly alongside the January, April, July, and October decisions. Why most economists expect another hold The case for standing pat comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions: Inflation is running hot, but mostly for one reason. Canada's headline inflation rate jumped...
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Canada’s Employment Boom: 76,000 New Jobs Signal Economic Recove

 


Canada’s labour market made impressive gains in January as the economy added a net 76,000 jobs, helping push the unemployment rate down to 6.6%. The surge in employment far exceeded economists’ expectations, signaling renewed confidence amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.

A key driver behind the strong performance was the manufacturing sector, which contributed roughly 33,000 new positions. This development underscores the sector’s reliance on U.S. demand for Canadian exports, a factor that has become increasingly significant given current trade tensions. In addition to the manufacturing boost, full-time employment also saw a healthy increase while part-time roles added to the overall strength of the report.

Despite these encouraging signs, analysts remain cautious. Although the unemployment rate has fallen, it still points to some underlying slack in the labour market. Wage growth moderated slightly to 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, which could influence upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada. With the possibility of further interest rate cuts on the horizon, this robust job report is likely to play a crucial role in shaping economic policy in the coming months.

The latest figures paint a positive picture for Canada’s recovery, offering renewed optimism for a more resilient and dynamic economic future.

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