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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canadian Rent Market Cools: Average Asking Rent Hits 18-Month Low

Canada’s rental market is showing signs of relief for tenants as average asking rents fell to $2,100 in January 2025—an 18‐month low that represents a 4.4% year-over-year decline.

This marks the fourth consecutive month of annual decreases following 38 straight months of rising rents, indicating a potential turning point in the market.

The drop was most pronounced in the secondary rental market, with condo apartments decreasing by 6.5% and houses and townhomes by 8.9%, while purpose-built rental apartments experienced a modest decline of just 1.7%.

Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand attributed the downward trend to heightened economic risks, a slowdown in international population inflows, and multi-decade highs in apartment completions, all of which are contributing to improved affordability for renters.

Regional differences remain notable: Ontario recorded the steepest decline, with apartment rents dropping 5.2% to an average of $2,329, whereas British Columbia—despite a 2.6% decrease—remains the priciest rental market at $2,463.

Despite these declines, current rental prices are still 5.2% higher than they were two years ago and 16.4% above rates from three years ago, underscoring persistent pressures in the market.

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