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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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China Strikes Back: Retaliatory Tariffs Signal Renewed Trade Tensions

 

New U.S. tariffs have come into force, triggering an immediate response from Beijing. As the 10% duty on Chinese exports takes effect, Chinese officials have announced a series of countermeasures aimed at protecting national interests and sending a strong message to Washington.

In a swift reply, China will impose a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas imports, and a 10% levy on U.S. crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large vehicles. The retaliatory measures also extend to the imposition of export controls on key rare earth metals that are critical for high-tech manufacturing and the transition to clean energy. In addition, Chinese regulators have launched an antitrust investigation into Google, further intensifying the dispute.

Although these new tariffs are scheduled to take effect on Monday, their announcement underscores Beijing’s readiness to challenge U.S. protectionist policies. China has vowed to defend its interests through legal channels at the World Trade Organization, while also leaving open the possibility for negotiations aimed at de-escalating the growing trade conflict.

These developments highlight that, despite ongoing calls for dialogue, the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies remains far from resolved.


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