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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Court Battle Aims to Reopen Parliament Amid Prorogation Crisis

A novel legal challenge has hit the Federal Court as opponents seek to force MPs back to work before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s prorogation period ends. Filed by the Calgary-based Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms on February 13, 2025, the suit argues that suspending parliamentary business until late March undermines democracy by preventing legislators from addressing urgent issues—including the looming U.S. tariff threat and stalled legislation like the capital gains tax reform.

Critics claim the prorogation was a politically motivated tactic designed to delay accountability during a turbulent period. They assert that Parliament’s essential role—to debate policy and hold the government to account—is compromised when the House sits on hiatus. With the hearing scheduled for later this week, legal experts say the outcome could set an important precedent on the limits of executive power and parliamentary rights.

As Canada navigates political uncertainty amid a leadership transition, the challenge highlights growing calls for transparency and a more robust system of checks and balances.


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