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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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Data Derailed: $900 Million Cut from U.S. Education Research

 

In a dramatic move that has rattled the education community, Elon Musk’s cost-cutting initiative, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has slashed nearly $900 million in contracts from the U.S. Department of Education’s research arm, the Institute of Education Sciences (IES). The cuts—announced via a DOGE post on the social media platform X—affect dozens of multi‐year agreements designed to track student learning from kindergarten through high school.

According to DOGE, 89 contracts totaling approximately $881 million have been terminated, with one contractor’s $1.5 million deal to “observe mailing and clerical operations” cited as an example of expenditures deemed wasteful. While the move spares flagship projects such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)—widely known as the nation’s report card—as well as data tools like the College Scorecard, critics worry that the broader impact will be felt in the erosion of long-term educational research.

Lawmakers and education experts have expressed strong concerns that the termination of these contracts will undermine the ability to collect and analyze essential data on school performance and student outcomes. Senator Patty Murray, a former preschool teacher and a vocal advocate for robust public education research, lambasted the decision as “bulldozing the research arm” of the Education Department. “Without such research, our ability to pinpoint achievement gaps and to improve educational practices is severely compromised,” she said.

Supporters of the cuts argue that they are a necessary step in eliminating inefficiencies and ensuring that taxpayer dollars are spent wisely. A spokesperson for the department explained that the canceled contracts were identified as “waste, fraud, and abuse” and that the action aligns with an administration-wide effort to focus on “meaningful learning.”

This sweeping retrenchment comes amid ongoing debates over the federal role in education. President Donald Trump has long promised to decentralize education and return more control to the states—a vision that now appears to be taking shape through DOGE’s aggressive budget-cutting measures. However, as researchers and local educators brace for potential fallout, the long-term implications of dismantling a key source of national education data remain deeply uncertain.

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