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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds Near 80%, Oil Tops US$100, Loonie Hits 5-Week High

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Saturday, October 24, 2026 The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates on Wednesday, oil is back above US$100 and stocks slipped on AI worries. Here are the five things to know this Saturday, and what each one means for your wallet. 1 The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike on Wednesday Markets are putting roughly an 80% chance on a quarter-point increase at the Bank of Canada’s Oct. 28 decision, which would lift the policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. A majority of economists polled by Reuters also expect a second hike by the end of March. The shift followed hawkish comments from Governor Tiff Macklem about a higher inflation outlook driven by oil. What it means for you Every 0.25-point increase adds about $250 a year (roughly $21 a month) for each $100,000 of prime-linked debt, such as a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC. Fixed-rate holders are not hit directly, but renewals are being priced off higher bond yields. Savers may see HISA and...

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Differing Reactions: Mexico Shows Commitment While Canada Misreads Tariff Mandate

 

The White House has observed a stark contrast in responses to President Trump’s latest tariff order. In official remarks on Monday, senior economic adviser Kevin Hassett noted that Mexico has demonstrated a “very, very serious” approach to meeting the conditions outlined in the executive order. In contrast, Canadian officials and commentators have interpreted the tariff imposition as the start of an all-out trade war.

The tariffs—imposed on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China—are part of a broader U.S. strategy aimed at curbing illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the country. Hassett stressed that while the measures are designed to pressure trading partners to address these issues, “Canadians appear to have misunderstood the plain language of the executive order,” suggesting that Canada’s reaction is disproportionate compared with Mexico’s measured response.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, for her part, has maintained a calm and pragmatic stance, indicating readiness to negotiate and implement additional steps if required. U.S. officials believe that this cooperative posture could help de-escalate tensions and set the stage for further discussions.

Critics on both sides warn that misinterpretations and overreactions could have serious economic repercussions. As the debate over tariffs continues, the administration appears keen to highlight Mexico’s commitment as a model of compliance—contrasted sharply against what it views as Canada’s excessive alarm.


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