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Markets Slip as Investors Bet on Extended U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

  Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Hope U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Will Hold Stocks drifted lower today as markets balanced cautious optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire with persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns. Recent trading sessions have shown that even modest signs of diplomatic progress can meaningfully shift investor sentiment. Asian and U.S. markets rallied earlier this week on hopes that Washington and Tehran would continue negotiations, helping unwind some of the war-driven risk premiums that had pushed oil and volatility higher. Despite the pullback, investors remain hopeful that the ceasefire—currently set to expire soon—will be extended, giving negotiators more time to work toward a longer-term agreement. Reports indicate both sides are considering adding another two weeks to the pause, a move that has already helped push Brent crude below the recent peak of nearly US$120 per barrel. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on inflation expecta...
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GST Holiday Fails to Deliver Economic Lift, Data Shows Minimal Impact

                                               

New figures reveal that Canada's GST/HST holiday yielded little boost in consumer spending, falling short of expectations. Payment processor Moneris reported a 4% decline in overall spending during the tax break period compared to the previous year, with both the number and size of transactions dropping slightly. Similarly, a survey conducted by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) found that only about 5% of small businesses experienced a noticeable sales increase, while the majority reported no significant change in business activity.

Despite the intended relief, many retailers found the initiative more burdensome than beneficial, citing last-minute adjustments to point-of-sale systems and increased administrative challenges. Although certain sectors, like children's apparel, saw minor gains, these were not enough to offset the overall downturn in consumer spending. The data suggests that the tax holiday may have merely shifted the timing of purchases rather than stimulating additional economic activity.


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