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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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Investor Relief: Markets Stabilize as Tariff Tensions Ease

 


U.S. stocks experienced a welcome reprieve after initial sell-offs triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements. Early in the trading session, fears of a full-blown trade war led to sharp declines across major indices. However, after Trump announced a one‐month delay on tariffs targeting Mexico, investor sentiment began to shift, and share falls eased noticeably.

The temporary pause allowed markets to regain some lost ground, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all managing to claw back earlier losses. Analysts noted that the delay reduced immediate concerns over supply chain disruptions and increased costs, giving investors a short-term breather while negotiations continue. Although uncertainties remain—especially as tariffs on Canada and China are still pending—the easing of share falls has injected cautious optimism into the market, suggesting that further policy adjustments might help stabilize economic conditions.


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