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5 Things to Know Today: Canada Enters Recession, Oil Slips on Iran Ceasefire Talk

Saturday, May 30, 2026 — Your quick-hit Canadian financial briefing for the day. 1.Canada Officially Meets the Definition of a Technical Recession Statistics Canada confirmed Friday that real GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026 — following a revised 1.0% drop in Q4 2025 . That's two straight quarters of negative growth, which meets the technical definition of a recession. The miss was a big one: economists had forecast growth of 1.5% . The main culprits were a surge in imports (up 2.9%, largely gold), declining business capital investment (down 0.7% — its fifth consecutive quarterly drop ), and weakness in resource extraction and construction. On a per-capita basis, GDP actually edged up 0.2% as Canada's population shrank for the second quarter in a row. Not everyone is ready to call it a full recession: some economists note that three of the four weak months were isolated, and early April data points to a sharp 0.4% rebound . Still, the numbers ...

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New Diplomacy on the Horizon: U.S. and Russia Push Ahead Without Ukraine

 

In a bold shift from previous diplomatic efforts, top U.S. and Russian officials have agreed to advance negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine—even as Ukrainian representatives remain notably absent. High-level talks held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, saw U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussing the framework for future peace negotiations and steps toward restoring bilateral relations.

The Trump administration’s approach, which prioritizes direct engagement with Moscow, marks a departure from longstanding principles that insisted on “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Critics in Kyiv have voiced strong opposition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that any agreement reached without Ukraine’s participation would be unacceptable and would undermine the nation’s sovereignty. European leaders echoed these concerns, with several officials labeling the move as a dangerous precedent that could lead to a “dirty deal” and embolden further Russian demands.

Analysts note that the absence of Ukraine from the negotiation table reflects a transactional mindset, one that appears to value immediate economic and strategic concessions over the long-term security guarantees essential for lasting peace. While U.S. officials are optimistic—citing the talks as a “highly productive” first step—the outcome remains uncertain. Critics argue that sidelining Ukraine could ultimately sacrifice key security interests and further destabilize an already volatile region.

For now, the dialogue is only the opening chapter in what promises to be a complex and protracted negotiation process. As both sides prepare for further discussions, the international community watches closely, aware that the stakes extend far beyond bilateral U.S.–Russia relations and into the broader security architecture of Europe.


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