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Ottawa's Parliament Hill, where the Carney government is rolling out Canada's largest fiscal stimulus package since 1980. / Photo: Unsplash. MoneySavings.ca  ·  Economy & Policy Monday, April 13, 2026  ·  Daily Edition Canada at a crossroads: oil shock, frozen rates, and a trade deal on the clock Canada's economy is navigating a uniquely complicated moment in 2026. A Middle East conflict has sent oil prices surging past US$104 a barrel, a once-in-a-generation fiscal stimulus package is being rolled out in Ottawa, and the clock is ticking on a renegotiation of Canada's most important trade agreement. For everyday Canadians, this means uncertainty at the gas pump, a central bank with limited room to cut rates, and a federal government betting big on public spending to kick-start growth. Here is what you need to know about the forces shaping the Canadian economy right now. 1. The Bank of Canada is stuck — and oil is why The Bank of Canada has held it...
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Tariff Shock: Overnight Gas Prices Set to Jump by At Least 10%

 

New U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil imports are poised to hit the gas pump hard. President Trump’s recent move—imposing a 10% duty on Canadian energy products and a steeper 25% tariff on Mexican oil—is expected to drive refining costs upward, with consumers likely to bear the brunt.

Experts warn that as U.S. refineries, particularly those in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, struggle to adjust to higher input costs from a trade-disrupted oil market, gas prices could spike by at least 10% overnight. “Expect fuel prices will rise noticeably if oil and refined products are not exempt,” said a leading analyst, emphasizing that the cost pressures will quickly transfer to consumers at the pump citeturn0search2.

The tariffs, intended to pressure trade partners on issues like illegal immigration and drug smuggling, come at a time when the U.S. imports roughly 4 million barrels per day of Canadian oil and over 450,000 barrels per day from Mexico. With refineries largely set up to process these specific types of crude, finding alternative sources won’t be an easy fix.

While some industry insiders hope that temporary exemptions might be negotiated to alleviate consumer pain, many remain skeptical. As the tariffs take effect, American drivers may soon notice a significant, immediate impact on fuel prices, adding a new challenge to an already complex economic landscape citeturn0search0.

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