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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...

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Tariff Shock Ripples: TSX Futures Plunge as Global Markets Sell Off


TSX futures joined a broader global selloff on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, set to take effect Tuesday. The measures include a 25% levy on most Canadian goods—with energy products facing a lower 10% rate—and have spurred widespread investor anxiety about the potential for a full-blown trade war.

Early trading saw March futures on the S&P/TSX index drop by about 1.3%, as markets reacted swiftly to the news. The tariffs have unsettled investors, prompting a flight to safer assets such as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, while equity positions were pared off amid fears that the tariffs could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth. Global indices from Europe to Asia have also been pressured, with significant selloffs in major markets.

In response to Trump’s announcement, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has vowed swift retaliatory measures, unveiling plans for tariffs on roughly C$155 billion worth of U.S. goods. The escalation in trade tensions is likely to disrupt supply chains further, affecting sectors from automotive to energy, and could even pave the way for prolonged economic uncertainty.

Amid the turmoil, some corporate activity continues to move forward. For example, Brookfield Asset Management recently completed a $1.7 billion acquisition in the electric heat trace systems sector—a sign that while markets are volatile, business fundamentals continue to drive major transactions.

As investors digest the unfolding trade conflict, many caution that further tariff escalations could lead to a cascade of economic challenges, including increased consumer prices and potential recessions in affected regions.

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