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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Tariff Truce, but Trade Tensions Linger

 

A temporary pause in U.S. tariffs has provided a brief respite for Canada, yet uncertainty continues to cloud North American trade relations. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for 30 days—pending further border security and anti-drug measures—has momentarily stalled a looming trade war. However, Canadian officials and business leaders remain wary that this delay may only be a short intermission in a longer-term conflict.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has moved quickly by announcing initiatives such as a $1.3 billion border security plan, the appointment of a “fentanyl czar,” and the deployment of additional border personnel. Despite these measures, major Canadian unions and provincial leaders warn that the threat of reimposed tariffs could still jeopardize jobs and disrupt economic stability. Industries dependent on cross-border supply chains—from energy to manufacturing—are bracing for potential price increases and operational disruptions, with investors watching market responses closely.

While financial markets showed only a modest selloff after the announcement, many remain cautious about what future negotiations might bring. The administration’s focus on curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking has, for now, diverted immediate tariff implementation, but the possibility of renewed tariff action—potentially even extending to goods from the European Union—keeps uncertainty alive on both sides of the border.


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