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Fed Poised for First 2025 Rate Cut as Weak Jobs Data Outweigh Inflation Concerns

  The Federal Reserve seal at its Washington, D.C. headquarters, where policymakers are set to decide on the first interest rate cut of 2025. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and the first since December last year. The move would bring the federal funds target range down to 4.00%–4.25%, as policymakers respond to slowing job growth and rising unemployment, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent labor market data showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, with earlier months revised downward, while the unemployment rate has climbed to around 4.3%. Inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, has edged higher in recent months, partly due to tariffs pushing up consumer prices. Markets have largely priced in the cut, with investors watching the Fed’s updated “dot plot” for clues on whether more reductions will follow in October and December. The decision ...

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Tariff Truce, but Trade Tensions Linger

 

A temporary pause in U.S. tariffs has provided a brief respite for Canada, yet uncertainty continues to cloud North American trade relations. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for 30 days—pending further border security and anti-drug measures—has momentarily stalled a looming trade war. However, Canadian officials and business leaders remain wary that this delay may only be a short intermission in a longer-term conflict.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has moved quickly by announcing initiatives such as a $1.3 billion border security plan, the appointment of a “fentanyl czar,” and the deployment of additional border personnel. Despite these measures, major Canadian unions and provincial leaders warn that the threat of reimposed tariffs could still jeopardize jobs and disrupt economic stability. Industries dependent on cross-border supply chains—from energy to manufacturing—are bracing for potential price increases and operational disruptions, with investors watching market responses closely.

While financial markets showed only a modest selloff after the announcement, many remain cautious about what future negotiations might bring. The administration’s focus on curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking has, for now, diverted immediate tariff implementation, but the possibility of renewed tariff action—potentially even extending to goods from the European Union—keeps uncertainty alive on both sides of the border.


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