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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...

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Tariffs, Trade & Ties: Modi’s Diplomatic ‘Gift’ to Trump

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Washington with a well-calculated strategy aimed at strengthening the U.S.-India relationship while averting new tariff threats from the Trump administration. In a visit marked by a series of high-level meetings, Modi is expected to offer concessions ranging from increased purchases of U.S. defense equipment—including combat vehicles and jet engines—to greater imports of liquefied natural gas and American agricultural products.

The Indian leader’s visit comes at a critical juncture. Trump, still in the early days of his presidency, has been vocally critical of India’s high tariffs—often branding the country as a “tariff king”—and has indicated plans for reciprocal measures that could affect American consumers and global trade balances. In response, New Delhi has made adjustments, reducing duties on select goods such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles and opening doors to deeper negotiations on key sectors like electronics, medical supplies, and chemicals.

Both leaders appear to be leveraging their established rapport—built during Modi’s previous interactions in Washington—to navigate these contentious issues. While Trump is looking to reshape trade dynamics and bolster U.S. economic interests, Modi’s visit is equally focused on cementing a strategic partnership that balances economic imperatives with broader geopolitical concerns, especially in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

This diplomatic engagement highlights the complex interplay of trade, tariff negotiations, and strategic alliances at a time when both nations are seeking to recalibrate their relationship amidst global economic uncertainties.


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