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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...

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Tariffs, Trade & Ties: Modi’s Diplomatic ‘Gift’ to Trump

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Washington with a well-calculated strategy aimed at strengthening the U.S.-India relationship while averting new tariff threats from the Trump administration. In a visit marked by a series of high-level meetings, Modi is expected to offer concessions ranging from increased purchases of U.S. defense equipment—including combat vehicles and jet engines—to greater imports of liquefied natural gas and American agricultural products.

The Indian leader’s visit comes at a critical juncture. Trump, still in the early days of his presidency, has been vocally critical of India’s high tariffs—often branding the country as a “tariff king”—and has indicated plans for reciprocal measures that could affect American consumers and global trade balances. In response, New Delhi has made adjustments, reducing duties on select goods such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles and opening doors to deeper negotiations on key sectors like electronics, medical supplies, and chemicals.

Both leaders appear to be leveraging their established rapport—built during Modi’s previous interactions in Washington—to navigate these contentious issues. While Trump is looking to reshape trade dynamics and bolster U.S. economic interests, Modi’s visit is equally focused on cementing a strategic partnership that balances economic imperatives with broader geopolitical concerns, especially in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

This diplomatic engagement highlights the complex interplay of trade, tariff negotiations, and strategic alliances at a time when both nations are seeking to recalibrate their relationship amidst global economic uncertainties.


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