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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Trade War Looms: Economists Brace for Impact as Loonie Weakens


As the specter of a trade war looms large, economists and market strategists are sounding the alarm, warning of potential repercussions for the Canadian economy. The recent announcement of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canadian goods has sent shockwaves through financial markets, causing the Canadian dollar, or "loonie," to slide to its lowest level since 2003.

Top economists predict that if the tariff war persists, Canada's economy could face its most severe shock since the COVID-19 pandemic. The loonie's decline is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and increase the unemployment rate, potentially pushing the economy into a recession. 

Chief Economist Beata Caranci and Senior Economist James Orlando anticipate a "sharp negative reaction" in North American equity markets and further weakening of the loonie, which could drop as low as 65 US cents. The Bank of Canada may be forced to cut interest rates to mitigate the economic impact.

As the situation unfolds, market strategists advise investors to brace for volatility and consider safe-haven assets to weather the storm. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether negotiations can avert a full-blown trade war and stabilize the loonie.




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