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5 Things to Know Today: Midterms Day, Oil Plunge, Trade Deal, Budget (Nov 3)

  Canadian Money Brief • Tuesday, November 3, 2026 It’s Election Day in the United States, oil just had its biggest one-day drop since late July, and Ottawa tables its budget on Thursday. Here are five things to know today, and what each one means for your wallet. 1. U.S. midterms: Canada is watching Americans vote in the midterm elections today. Markets are expecting Democrats to win the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate is still uncertain. Trade policy has been a campaign issue, especially in border states such as Michigan and Maine, where Republican candidates have faced pressure over tariffs that have hurt local businesses. What it means for you: The result could move the loonie, the TSX and the tariff talks over the coming days, but one election night is rarely a reason to rebuild your TFSA or RRSP. If you need to convert Canadian dollars to U.S. dollars soon, expect choppy exchange rates. 2. Oil plunges on Iran diplomacy, then bounces Oil fell sharply o...
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Trade War Looms: Economists Brace for Impact as Loonie Weakens


As the specter of a trade war looms large, economists and market strategists are sounding the alarm, warning of potential repercussions for the Canadian economy. The recent announcement of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canadian goods has sent shockwaves through financial markets, causing the Canadian dollar, or "loonie," to slide to its lowest level since 2003.

Top economists predict that if the tariff war persists, Canada's economy could face its most severe shock since the COVID-19 pandemic. The loonie's decline is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and increase the unemployment rate, potentially pushing the economy into a recession. 

Chief Economist Beata Caranci and Senior Economist James Orlando anticipate a "sharp negative reaction" in North American equity markets and further weakening of the loonie, which could drop as low as 65 US cents. The Bank of Canada may be forced to cut interest rates to mitigate the economic impact.

As the situation unfolds, market strategists advise investors to brace for volatility and consider safe-haven assets to weather the storm. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether negotiations can avert a full-blown trade war and stabilize the loonie.




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